Report

Preparing for a changing world

This document builds on POST’s previous publication, Topics of Interest 2018 and represents evidence gathered between May 2018 and April 2019. Following feedback from internal and external stakeholders for a more standardised format, the topics included consist of areas of change with a larger volume of evidence attached that are likely to have significant impact, as these are most likely to be of most interest to Parliament.

Topics that could be indicative of change but lacking in enough evidence, as may often be the case with emerging cultural change and technologies, were sifted out by POST advisers. Further subjects were then excluded based on workshops with parliamentary staff to ascertain the level of their significance to Parliament, with the areas of change included then peer reviewed by stakeholders.

The subjects are listed under six category headings: demographic change and healthcare; social and cultural trends; geopolitical and governance challenges; environmental pressures and climate change; resource security and sustainability; and technological advance. These categories are based on the drivers of change identified in POSTnote 500, Towards 2020 and Beyond, in 2015.

These summaries of change are not predictions, but subjective judgements about rapidly evolving areas. For example, with high technological growth it becomes difficult to predict what technological tools will be available within a decade; CRISPR-Cas9 was first harnessed for genome editing in 2012, was causing ethical concerns by 2014, and used to alter the genomes of twin baby girls born in 2018 in China. The summaries are rather intended to help sketch out the implications of possible areas of change, which may or may not be desirable. Low probability but high impact events (or wildcards), such as the eruption of a super volcano or a pandemic, could make all such considerations irrelevant.

However, deciding what is desirable in the future may help inform policy priorities, and without such debates change may be forced onto policy-makers by foreseeable contingencies. Although too large to be the subject of a POST publication, these areas of change will inform the deliberations of the POST Board to identify priorities for POST’s future work programme.