This report provides an overview of research commissioned by the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI) on the economic implications of a UK exit from the EU for Northern Ireland.
The analysis builds on a wider research project which assessed the macroeconomic implications of a UK exit from the EU for the UK and the rest of the world across nine alternative scenarios. The scenarios vary across two main dimensions: the new trade and market access agreement that is agreed between the UK and the Rest of the EU (REU) post-UK exit from the EU; and the policy options that the UK government adopts with any new “policy sovereignty”.
To quantify the regional economic implications of each scenario, a separate model was developed for the UK’s NUTS 1 regions. The model simulates the impact on each region’s factors of production (its capital stock and labour supply) and trend productivity to assess how economic output (as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA)) would be affected across different sectors.
This paper summarises the major findings of this modelling exercise with a particular focus on the impact on Northern Ireland in comparison to the UK as a whole. The document concludes with an assessment of the limitations of the modelling exercise with a particular emphasis on how they relate to the estimated impact on Northern Ireland.